In 1930s, legendary economist John Maynard Keynes penned Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren. He predicted that by 2030, the ‘economic problem’ would be solved, and we’d all be struggling to figure out what to do with our 15-hour workweeks. In a recent interview with CBS, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon echoed similar sentiments. “I believe that 30 years from now, your kids are probably working three and a half days a week.” Will AI truly help cut the workweek down to 3.5 days a week? If history is any judge, we aren’t headed for the golf course yet.
Jamie Dimon recently dangled a golden carrot in front of the global workforce, suggesting AI will pave the way for a 3.5-day workweek. On paper, it’s a lovely sentiment. It’s the kind of utopian sunshine we’ve all been waiting for. But, in theory, we may just be headed toward more Zoom calls.
If we look at economist Maynard’s prediction, we’re four years away from the deadline. And yet, most of us are still working 40-hour a week. Or worse, the always-on Slack notifications eat up 60 to 70 hours a week.
If history is any indication…
Since 1940s, U.S. productivity has soared, fueled by Ford’s ambitious assembly line, the mainframe computer, and the internet. If output equals time off, we would be working two hours a day. Instead, we’re sitting at the center of the Productivity Paradox.
| Era | Productivity Growth (Approx.) | Avg. Weekly Hours (Manufacturing/Private) |
| 1940s | Baseline | ~40.6 Hours |
| 1970s | +100% | ~38.9 Hours |
| 2024 | +300% | ~34.3 Hours* |
*Note: While the average working hours have dipped slightly, this is largely due to a rise in part-time service roles. The standard professional workload remains the same.
If we look at economist Maynard’s prediction, we’re four years away from the deadline. And yet, most of us are still working 40-hour a week.
The math isn’t mathing
If we are so efficient, why are we still signing off at 5 PM on a Friday? The truth is that we’re battling a lot on the productivity front.
Parkinson’s Law: Work expands to fill the time available. AI might draft your email in two seconds, but that just means you’ll send 100 more emails a day.
Hedonic Treadmill: In a competitive market, any extra time employees save is reinvested into higher output. If your competitor in China or India uses AI to do 10x the work, you can’t use AI to work half the time. You still have to match their 10x.
Hello, meetings?: The easier it is to communicate, the more we do it. Just ask your colleagues sitting in Bangalore or Osaka. We’re slowly replacing ‘doing the work’ with ‘talking about the work.’
Where do we go from here?
I reached out to experts who build these ‘labor-saving’ tools. The consensus says we aren’t headed to the 3.5-day workweek as Jamie Dimon predicted.
“The race is will get ten times longer,” says an AI researcher. “We aren’t going to see a reduction in workweek as Dimon says.”
Then why are we cheering for a three-day work week when it isn’t going to fall on our lap anytime soon? Gains from technological revolution seldom fall on those working at the end of the leadership chain. We won’t see a 3.5-day workweek as Dimon says, rather we may face a unique problem. We’ve always had a distribution problem and it is not going to resolve by itself.
Distribution Problem With Jamie Dimon’s prediction of 3.5-day Workweek
Since the late 1970s, the productivity-pay gap has demonstrated that while workers are producing more than ever, their hourly compensation has flatlined in comparison. Profits are still returned to shareholders. The bottom line looks healthier, so the C-suite gets a bonus. All the extra money made from efficiency is reinvested to get ever faster.
In evolutionary biology, the Red Queen Hypothesis says that you must run as fast as you can just to stay in the same place. If AI saves every accountant in the world 20 hours a week, the standard for accounting doesn’t drop. Instead, the market price for accounting drops, or the complexity of the tasks required to be handled by humans increases. In order to remain competitive and earn their current salary, the accountant must fill those 20 hours with more work.
Moreover, in high-earning sectors such as finance, law and tech, the 40+ hour work week is a sorting mechanism. If every worker has an AI that does 80% of the work, the only way to prove you are more dedicated than your peer is to spend even more time on the job. This is a cultural problem that AI cannot fix.
Jamie Dimon might be right about the capacity for a shorter workweek, but we cannot ignore the elephant in the room. Until we break the invisible link between ‘presence’ and ‘value,’ AI won’t be our liberator from a 5-day workweek. AI is simply going to make us run faster on the hamster wheel.
Our verdict: Keep your Friday plans tentative in 2032. The 3.5-day workweek is still a fantasy in a world that runs on 24/7 expectations.
Keynes missed the mark. Will Jamie Dimon with his prediction for the 3.5-day workweek? Subscribe to The HR Digest where we talk about the future of the Friday.
